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Structured Products Deep Dives

Payoffs sold for yield, and the residual nobody can hedge

bzhmacro bzhmacro.com
Rates & cross-currency · research

Structured products, and the risk that stays on the desk.

Each of these notes takes one structured-note family and works out who is long what, net of the whole chain — investor, issuer, dealer, and whoever the dealer sells it on to. They are ranked by residual: what is left after a competent desk has hedged everything it can. Every register row is tagged with its source and its status, and every number in a quantitative Part is reproduced by a script that runs with no network access.

5
research notes
1
survey note
1
live tracker
14
families triaged
01

The dives

Six notes. Each carries a deal register keyed on ISIN or CUSIP, a standalone model, a source-register workbook and a caveats section that says which figures are measured and which are mine.

TEC10 note 25 July 2026, revised 29 July
Constant-maturity sovereign yields as a structured product underlying

The TEC10 complex: index, issuance landscape, issuer risk and hedging

The French State invented the instrument in 1996 and abandoned it in 2009; banks have now revived the index without reviving the instrument. Thirty-one deals, €3.33bn, three-quarters Crédit Agricole — and a TEC10-versus-CMS10 basis that is the largest unhedged exposure in the chain.

€3.33bn
current wave
31
deals in register
1996–2009
sovereign era
RESIDUALTEC10 vs CMS10 basis; inter-date correlation no swaption pins down
read the note →
US CMT note 29 July 2026
Constant-maturity Treasury as a structured product underlying

The US CMT complex: index, issuance landscape, issuer risk and hedging

The same trade in dollars, and it is the junior one. Zero SEC filings in 2023–24, then 186 in 2025 and 205 in the first seven months of 2026. Thirty-seven notes documented with a CUSIP; $626.2m of printed size against a French wave several times larger.

$626.2m
documented size
37
notes with a CUSIP
438
filings screened
RESIDUALTreasury–swap basis; the issuer's call; a conduct question nobody is looking at
read the note →
Formosa note 29 July 2026
The Formosa callable

Taiwan's life insurers, the world's largest single supply of long-dated dollar receiver volatility — and what happens when it stops

A regulatory arbitrage that became a structural dependency. From 2014, foreign-currency bonds listed in Taipei sat outside the insurers' 45% overseas ceiling. Issuance ran at US$25–37bn a year through 2017–19; nothing is being called, and nothing will be.

$187–191bn
outstanding stock
$129bn
USD callables
>90%
insurer-held
RESIDUALExtension risk on a book that cannot be called; the issuer usually is the dealer
read the note →
Zero Floor note 27 July 2026
The zero floor

Floored coupons in EUR, GBP and USD — scope, issuers, purpose and hedging

The 0% floor is a seam, not a view — the point where derivatives documentation, cash-market documentation, accounting and settlement plumbing fail to agree that a negative number is a legitimate cash flow. In Spain the same clause was found to be an abuse.

2.50%
index floor value
0.06%
coupon floor value
€2.24bn
Spanish refunds
RESIDUALA behavioural, documentary and judicial risk — not a market risk at all
read the note →
LPI note 2 August 2026
Limited Price Indexation

The largest option position in sterling, assembled by statute, held by people who did not buy it, and hedged with an instrument that cannot replicate it

A UK DB pension in payment is a strip of annual inflation collars on a ratcheting notional, and nobody chose it. The Bank diagnosed the problem in 2009 and 2012 in its own words, then across the entire 2022 LDI corpus the words “limited price indexation” do not appear once.

£1.4tn
DB liabilities
£1.51bn
collared bonds found
2.82%
model-risk band
RESIDUALSerial correlation of inflation — no quote, no instrument, no market
read the note →
Pipeline survey 31 July 2026
What to look at next

Fourteen structured-note families, ranked by how much of the risk cannot be traded away — and what it would take to do each one

The triage note. Fourteen further families ranked against the shape the first four kept landing on — a payoff sold for yield, an embedded option nobody on the buy side priced, and a residual the dealer warehouses. Ranked by residual, not by size.

14
families ranked
4
in Tier A
rates + xccy
scope
RESIDUALRanks the others. Tier A #3 became the LPI dive.
read the note →
02

The live one

SPIRE is not a note — it is a tracker that regenerates itself every morning, and it keeps its own repository and deployment.

SPIRE live tracker updated daily
SPIRE SA issuance tracker

Every note issued under Single Platform Investment Repackaging Entity SA, refreshed daily from free public data

The live one. ESMA FIRDS, TreasuryDirect and OpenFIGI, regenerated every morning: ISIN, notional, coupon, maturity, lifecycle status, the estimated underlying government bond, and a freshness badge. Deployed separately — it has its own repo and its own daily GitHub Action.

daily
refresh
FIRDS
primary source
£0
data cost
RESIDUALCross-currency basis in repacks — Tier A #4 in the Pipeline survey
spire.bzhmacro.com
03

How these are built

The same method every time, and the register comes before the prose.

  1. Score the family on four tests — residual, footprint, data, adjacency. A family that fails the data test is unworkable however interesting it is, and the note says so instead of asserting.
  2. Build the register first, bottom-up from primary documents, keyed on ISIN, with a status tag on every row: VERIFIED, REPORTED, DERIVED, INFERRED, no_public_source. The register decides what can be claimed.
  3. Keep a coverage ledger. Anything unobtainable is recorded with a reason, not silently dropped.
  4. Name the specific residual — which adjustment, which basis, which strike region, which point on the swaption grid — and then the concrete failure mode.
  5. Quantify, and label the arithmetic as arithmetic. The models are illustrative: one-factor, backward induction, a few hundred thousand paths. Enough for signs, orders of magnitude and comparative statics. Not pricing models, and the notes say so wherever a number appears.
  6. Isolate the model risk by varying the unhedgeable parameter while holding every marginal fixed. That is what turns “there is model risk” into a number.
  7. Write NONE FOUND, and mean it. Where no public figure exists, the note says no public figure exists rather than repeating a search snippet.
  8. Check the canonical citation says what it is cited as saying, and correct prior work in the open. Both have paid off every time.
04

Sources

Deal-level, all free. The tested endpoint list — what returns a file, what returns a JavaScript shell, and what is definitively not available free — is in the Pipeline register.

SRC
SEC EDGAR full-text search — 424B2 priced pricing supplements and FWP preliminary term sheets, US retail notes, coverage from 2001.
SRC
ESMA prospectus register (Solr) — 45.5m documents, ISIN-indexed. Metadata only; it does not return the PDF.
SRC
ESMA FIRDS — the reference universe for EU/UK listed instruments, and the denominator behind the LPI and SPIRE work.
SRC
Taipei Exchange OpenAPI — the entire outstanding international-bond book with ISIN and non-call × call frequency. Same-day snapshot, no date parameter.
SRC
BIS debt-securities and OTC-derivatives statistics (SDMX v2) for sizing, and the BIS full-text search for official-sector text.
SRC
DTCC SDR / CFTC cumulative rates file — the only free source of actual swaption strikes, premiums and expiries. Notionals capped, history a rolling two years.
SRC
Issuer programme documentation — base prospectuses, final terms, pricing supplements, read to the end. The packs are held in the repository and are not republished here.