Six notes. Each carries a deal register keyed on ISIN or CUSIP, a
standalone model, a source-register workbook and a caveats section that says which
figures are measured and which are mine.
TEC10
note
25 July 2026, revised 29 July
Constant-maturity sovereign yields as a structured product underlying
The TEC10 complex: index, issuance landscape, issuer risk and hedging
The French State invented the instrument in 1996 and abandoned it in 2009; banks have now revived the index without reviving the instrument. Thirty-one deals, €3.33bn, three-quarters Crédit Agricole — and a TEC10-versus-CMS10 basis that is the largest unhedged exposure in the chain.
RESIDUALTEC10 vs CMS10 basis; inter-date correlation no swaption pins down
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Constant-maturity Treasury as a structured product underlying
The US CMT complex: index, issuance landscape, issuer risk and hedging
The same trade in dollars, and it is the junior one. Zero SEC filings in 2023–24, then 186 in 2025 and 205 in the first seven months of 2026. Thirty-seven notes documented with a CUSIP; $626.2m of printed size against a French wave several times larger.
RESIDUALTreasury–swap basis; the issuer's call; a conduct question nobody is looking at
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The Formosa callable
Taiwan's life insurers, the world's largest single supply of long-dated dollar receiver volatility — and what happens when it stops
A regulatory arbitrage that became a structural dependency. From 2014, foreign-currency bonds listed in Taipei sat outside the insurers' 45% overseas ceiling. Issuance ran at US$25–37bn a year through 2017–19; nothing is being called, and nothing will be.
$187–191bn
outstanding stock
RESIDUALExtension risk on a book that cannot be called; the issuer usually is the dealer
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The zero floor
Floored coupons in EUR, GBP and USD — scope, issuers, purpose and hedging
The 0% floor is a seam, not a view — the point where derivatives documentation, cash-market documentation, accounting and settlement plumbing fail to agree that a negative number is a legitimate cash flow. In Spain the same clause was found to be an abuse.
RESIDUALA behavioural, documentary and judicial risk — not a market risk at all
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Limited Price Indexation
The largest option position in sterling, assembled by statute, held by people who did not buy it, and hedged with an instrument that cannot replicate it
A UK DB pension in payment is a strip of annual inflation collars on a ratcheting notional, and nobody chose it. The Bank diagnosed the problem in 2009 and 2012 in its own words, then across the entire 2022 LDI corpus the words “limited price indexation” do not appear once.
£1.51bn
collared bonds found
RESIDUALSerial correlation of inflation — no quote, no instrument, no market
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What to look at next
Fourteen structured-note families, ranked by how much of the risk cannot be traded away — and what it would take to do each one
The triage note. Fourteen further families ranked against the shape the first four kept landing on — a payoff sold for yield, an embedded option nobody on the buy side priced, and a residual the dealer warehouses. Ranked by residual, not by size.
RESIDUALRanks the others. Tier A #3 became the LPI dive.
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